Wondering How The Market Growth Is

Wondering How The Market Growth Is

One of the good indicators of market prices is population growth.  The purple sections represent negative population growth.  The green represents the growth and that corresponds with the explosive growth from Morris County eastwards.

What are the populations migration pattern in these counties?  The following is an excerpt from New Jersey Future 2006 by Tim Evans, Research Director

Morris, Bergen, Hudson, and Essex, and only 970 from New York City. Hunterdon doesnot appear to be a direct exurban destination for people from the urban core the same waythat Ocean or Burlington are, for example. Instead, Hunterdon appears to be drawingpeople mostly from the mature suburbs, just as people are moving into those counties fromthe urban core. At the same time, Hunterdon lost a net outflow of more than 2,000 peopleto the counties to its west – almost 1,000 to Warren County, 700 to Northampton CountyPA, and 400 to Bucks County PA. Hunterdon County’s home values are nearly as high asthose in closer-in Somerset and Morris and are higher than those in Union or Middlesex,and its median household income is the highest of any county in New Jersey (as of the 2000Census), so perhaps for those looking to trade a longer commute for a cheaper or largerhouse, Hunterdon does not represent a particularly good bargain. They have been pricedout of Hunterdon and must look farther west on I-78 or US 202. 

Unlike Hunterdon, Sussex County appears to attract most of its migrants among peoplewho are making their first move away from the urbanized hub of north Jersey. WhereasHunterdon’s largest net inflows were from other suburban counties, Sussex’s largest flowswere directly from the core: 1,900 from Bergen, 1,700 from Passaic, 1,000 from Essex, andmore than 600 from Hudson, compared to a relatively small 1,600 from neighboring Morrisand a net outflow of 500 or so to Warren County. (Sussex was, however, the number- onedestination for people moving out of Morris County, in gross terms.) Sussex also lost acombined net outflow of almost 1,000 people to neighboring Monroe and Pike countiesin Pennsylvania. And unlike the rest of the counties in northern New Jersey, Sussex didnot receive any appreciable inflow of migrants from New York City; New Yorkers tendto bypass Sussex entirely in their outward moves. As a result, Sussex County actuallyexperienced an overall net outflow of about 3,600 migrants, the only exurban countyto lose people through domestic migration. It gained a net 5,600 people from otherNew Jersey counties but lost a net 9,200 to other states.Warren County, like Ocean, did not have a significant net outflow of migrants to any othercounty in New Jersey. It gained a net total of 2,800 people from the five urban-core counties,another 2,000 from Morris, nearly 1,000 each from Somerset and Hunterdon, and morethan 500 each from Middlesex and Sussex. 

People are migrating to Warren County fromall over northern New Jersey, including from other counties on the exurban fringe. Warrenappears to offer the best combination of lower cost of living and access to job markets,at least on the New Jersey side of the Delaware. But Warren County, in turn, is losing netmigrants to counties in eastern Pennsylvania – a net outflow of 400 to Monroe County anda remarkable (given Warren’s small overall size) 2,000 to Northampton County, just to thewest on I-78.

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Dated: May 27th 2015
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